Transplant Trial Watch

Risk prediction models for survival after heart transplantation: A systematic review.

Aleksova, N., et al. (2019).

American Journal of Transplantation [record in progress].

This study aimed to review prediction model characteristics and performance for all available scores that predict survival after heart transplantation (HT).

Ovid Medline and Epub Ahead of Print and In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Clinical Trials were searched from inception to December 2018. Eligible articles included adult patients in prospective or retrospective studies using single center or multicenter data, which reported a score or formula to predict mortality following HT.

21 studies were included in the systematic review that derived and/or validated 16 scores.

Outcomes being assessed included reporting study quality, model performance, external validation and performance.

1 year

CET Conclusions
This systematic review identified studies reporting risk prediction models for the prediction of survival following cardiac transplantation. The authors identify 16 models and look at study and reporting quality, validation and performance. Overall, quality of the studies was relatively poor and performance of the models was suboptimal, particularly for longer-term survival. The review is comprehensive and the methodology is generally very good. Exclusion of conference abstracts and proceedings may risk publication bias, which could not be formally assessed.

Trial registration

Funding source
No funding received