Transplant Trial Watch

Risk prediction model for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma in adult cardiac allograft recipients.

Nair, N., et al.

World Journal of Transplantation 2021; 11(3): 54-69.

This study aimed to determine the risk factors and predict the incidence of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) in cardiac transplant patients.

The entire dataset was randomly split into a derivation set and a validation set.

23736 cardiac transplant recipients.

Development of a model to predict the probability of developing cSCC following heart transplantation.


CET Conclusions
This study used UNOS registry data to build a risk prediction model to estimate the probability of developing cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) in heart transplant recipients (n=23,736). Patient data were randomly allocated to derivation and validation cohorts, which were similar in terms of patient characteristics. The multivariate model identified eight predictors of posttransplant cSCC. Based on the multivariate model, the authors developed a scoring system of the risk to develop cSCC at five years posttransplant, which divided patients in four risk groups (very low, low, mediate and high risk). The predicted and observed risk of developing cSCC were matched among the different risk groups. The risk of mortality was shown to be higher in patients who developed cSCC (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.25-1.82) compared to patients without cSCC. The authors stressed the importance of early screening and identification of cSCC among heart-transplant recipients.

Trial registration

Funding source
Not reported